Tesla Faces Headwinds in EV Sales but Eyes Autonomous Future Amid CES Developments
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Tesla reported its full-year 2025 vehicle deliveries earlier this month, totaling approximately 1.636 million units—a decline of about 8.6% from 2024. The fourth quarter saw 418,227 vehicles delivered, falling short of some analyst expectations and reflecting pressures from intensifying global competition, the expiration of U.S. federal EV tax credits, and regional market challenges. Chinese rival BYD overtook Tesla as the global EV sales leader, bolstered by strong international growth.
Despite the sales slowdown, Tesla's energy storage business showed strength, with a record 14.2 GWh deployed in Q4 alone. Investors are closely watching the company's upcoming Q4 2025 earnings release, scheduled for January 28, 2026, which will provide deeper insights into margins, profitability, and forward guidance amid these headwinds.
On the autonomy front, sightings of Cybercab prototypes undergoing real-world testing in Austin, Texas, signal progress toward Tesla's robotaxi ambitions. The purpose-built, two-seat autonomous vehicle—designed without a steering wheel or pedals—is gearing up for potential volume production ramp-up later in 2026. A congressional hearing on January 13 could prove pivotal, as proposed legislation aims to raise the federal cap on driverless vehicles without traditional controls from 2,500 to 90,000 annually, potentially clearing a major regulatory hurdle for widespread Cybercab deployment.
At CES 2026, Nvidia unveiled its Alpamayo self-driving platform and next-generation Rubin AI chips, positioning itself as a stronger contender in autonomous vehicle technology. Elon Musk acknowledged the announcements, noting that solving the "long tail" of rare edge cases in self-driving remains extremely difficult. He estimated Nvidia's efforts might pose competitive pressure in five to six years but expressed hope for their success, emphasizing distribution and scaling challenges in the industry.
As Tesla transitions toward AI, robotics, and autonomous mobility, 2026 is shaping up as a critical year. While core EV sales face near-term pressures, advancements in Full Self-Driving software, the Cybercab, and energy products could drive long-term growth and valuation upside. Investors await the January earnings call for more clarity on execution and timelines.